【作者】 王子伦； 张哲； 何清华；

【Author】 Wang Zilun;Zhang Zhe;He Qinghua;School of Civil Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology;School of Economics and Management,Tongji University;

【机构】 苏州科技大学土木工程学院； 同济大学经济与管理学院；

【摘要】 考虑供应链恢复努力的延迟效应,本研究旨在探讨有限时间内的装配式供应链中断的动态恢复策略。运用微分博弈的方法,研究了协作机制、纳什非合作机制和成本共担机制三种决策机制下的最优恢复策略。研究发现:(1)恢复努力的延迟效应刺激供应商和承包商投入更大的恢复努力,提高了建筑生产率和完成的总建筑工作量,但同时降低了装配式供应链的总利润。(2)最佳决策模式根据延迟条件而变化:在最小延迟条件下,集中式模式效果最佳,而随着延迟时间增加,成本分担模式变得越来越有优势。理论层面,本研究通过全面理解供应商和承包商如何随时间动态调整恢复努力以从装配式供应链中断中恢复,促进了装配式供应链韧性研究。实践层面,本研究发现可以指导供应商和承包商制定考虑延迟效应的恢复计划,并基于特定项目参数而非默认标准化方法理性选择决策模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering the delay effects of recovery efforts in supply chains, this study investigates dynamic recovery strategies for disruptions in prefabricated supply chains within a limited timeframe. Using a differential game approach, this study examines optimal recovery strategies under three decision-making mechanisms: Collaborative, Nash non-cooperative, and cost-sharing mechanisms. The results are:(1)The delayed effect of recovery efforts stimulates suppliers and contractors to invest greater recovery efforts, improving construction productivity and total completed construction work, but simultaneously reducing the total profit of the prefabricated supply chain.(2)The optimal decision-making pattern varies according to delay conditions: under minimal delay conditions, the centralized model performs best, while as delay time increases, the cost-sharing model becomes increasingly advantageous. At the theoretical level, this study advances research on prefabricated supply chain resilience by comprehensively understanding how suppliers and contractors dynamically adjust recovery efforts over time to recover from prefabricated supply chain disruptions. At the practical level, these findings can guide suppliers and contractors in developing recovery plans that consider delay effects, and in rationally selecting decision-making models based on specific project parameters rather than defaulting to standardized approaches.更多还原