【作者】 马妍； 李绍康； 杨津津； 张超然； 周继红； 李翔；

【Author】 Ma yan;Li Shaokang;Yang Jinjin;Zhang Chaoran;Zhou Jihong;Li Xiang;Hebei Engineering University;Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences;Handan Ecological Environment Bureau;

【机构】 河北工程大学； 中国环境科学研究院； 邯郸市生态环境局；

【摘要】 为了解威远页岩气田(以下简称威远区块)生态可持续发展状况,基于2009—2018年威远区块生态数据,从资源供给、资源消耗、环境纳污、环境污染和生态弹性5个方面,构建页岩气开发生态承载力评价指标体系,运用熵权法和逼近理想解法(熵权TOPSIS模型)进行现状评价,并在此基础上选用REGRESS回归模型对未来10年页岩气开发生态承载力进行预测。结果显示,2009—2018年威远区块页岩气开发生态承载力评价值维持在0.3908～0.5328,属于较弱承载力,但整体呈波动上升趋势;2019—2028年威远区块页岩气开发生态承载力预测数值以每年0.0012的递增形式缓慢上升,威远区块生态环境状况良好处于可承载状态。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to understand the ecological sustainable development status of Weiyuan shale gas field(hereinafter referred to as Weiyuan county block), based on the ecological data of Weiyuan county block from 2009 to 2018, the ecological sustainable development status of Weiyuan shale gas field is analyzed from five aspects: resource supply, resource consumption, environmental pollution, environmental pollution and ecological elasticity, the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of shale gas development is constructed, and the present situation is evaluated by using entropy weight method and TOPSIS model, on this basis, regression model was used to predict the ecological carrying capacity of shale gas development in the next 10 years.The results showed that the ecological carrying capacity of Weiyuan block remained at 0.3908～0.5328 from 2009 to 2018, which was weak, but the overall trend fluctuated from 2019 to 2019, the prediction value of ecological carrying capacity of shale gas development in the Weiyuan county block is increasing slowly in the form of 0.0012 every year, and the ecological environment of Weiyuan block is in a good carrying state.更多还原