【作者】 郭晴； 刘滔滔； 经力； 庞惠媚； 农光明； 唐双意； 陈峋；

【Author】 GUO Qing;LIU Tao-tao;JING Li;PANG Hui-mei;NONG Guang-ming;TANG Shuang-yi;CHEN Xun;The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University;

【机构】 广西医科大学第一附属医院；

【摘要】 目的:外部验证前期建立的0-10岁中国儿童万古霉素群体药动学（Population Pharmacokinetics, PPK）模型。方法:回顾性收集2013年8月至2017年5月期间在广西医科大学第一附属医院静脉应用万古霉素治疗的≤10岁的患者,根据前期建立的儿童万古霉素PPK模型,通过贝叶斯反馈法求出给定剂量下的万古霉素浓度个体预测值,与实测值比较,用平均预测误差（mean error,ME）和平均相对预测误差（ME%）评估模型的准确度,用平均绝对误差（mean absolute error,MAE）,均方根误差（root mean squared error,RMSE）和相对预测误差分布的比例评估模型的精密度,评估模型的预测性能。结果:共纳入191例患者377个血药浓度值。万古霉素个体预测值与实测值的平均预测误差（ME）,平均相对预测误差（ME%）,平均绝对误差（MAE）,均方根误差（RMSE）分别为-0.71 mg·L^-1,5.71%,2.04 mg·L^-1,3.36 mg·L^-1;个体预测值与实测值的相关系数为0.92;相对预测误差在±30%以内的血药浓度值约占83.02%。结论:前期建立的0-10岁儿童万古霉素PPK模型具有较高的预测性能,可用于万古霉素初始治疗方案的制定和药物暴露程度的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of a vancomycin population pharmacokinetic model in 0-10 year Chinese pediatric patients.Methods Hospitalized children ≤ 10 years of age who receiving vancomycin were retrospectively collected.Vancomycin serum concentrations were used for Bayesian estimation of individual population pharmacokinetic parameters. Results A total of 377 vancomycin serum concentrations from 191 patients were taken as the external validation. The mean error(ME), the mean relative prediction error(ME%), the mean absolute error(MAE) and the root mean square error(RMSE)in individual prediction method for the total patients were-0.71, 5.71%, 2.04, 3.36 respectively.The correlation coefficient between individual predictions and detection values was 0.92. The percentage of individual prediction error within ± 30% was 83.02%. Conclusion ThisChinese pediatric population pharmacokinetic model in 0-10 years old has a good prediction performance. It can be applied to the design of initial treatment plan and predicting the extent of drug exposure.更多还原