【作者】 王波； 毛雪岷； 叶雪梅；

【Author】 Wang Bo;Mao Xue-Min;Ye Xue-Mei;School of Management, Hefei University of Technology;Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-Making, Ministry of Education;

【机构】 合肥工业大学管理学院； 合肥工业大学过程优化与智能决策教育部重点实验室；

【摘要】 为了更好地利用信息技术来提高公共安全应急管理水平,基于广义随机Petri网对公共安全应急管理流程进行建模,得到模型的可达标识图并构建同构的马尔科夫链。以安徽九华山踩踏事故为例,采用模糊数学的相关理论来求解应急管理系统各状态的稳定概率并计算模型中库所繁忙的概率、变迁的利用率以及系统平均延时时间,从而对系统性能进行分析。结果表明,分析决策、应急处置以及应急处置反馈等环节是公共安全应急管理流程的瓶颈环节,应当作为流程优化的重点。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper modeled the emergency management processes of public security based on the generalized stochastic Petri nets so as to improve the level of emergency management of public security with the better use of information technology. Then, state-space reachability graph was obtained and isomorphic Markov chain was built. Taking the stampede accident at Jiuhua Mountain in Anhui as an example, the stable state probability was calculated with the theory of fuzzy mathematics. Then the busy probability of places, the utilization rate of transitions and the delayed time of system were calculated in order to analyze the performance of the system. The results showed that policy decision, emergency handling and feedback of emergency handling are the bottleneck of emergency management, so they should be key points in the process optimization.更多还原