【作者】 张延伟； 魏文寿； 姜逢清； 刘明哲；

【Author】 Zhang Yanwei;Wei Wenshou;Jiang Fengqing;Liu Mingzhe;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences;Graduate School,Chinese Academy of Sciences;Institute of Desert Meteorology;

【机构】 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所； 中国科学院研究生院； 沙漠研究所；

【摘要】 本文利用乌鲁木齐市1951～2008年逐日气温时间序列资料,建立了高温和低温极端气候事件的阈值,检测了58年来乌鲁木齐市逐日气温的极端事件出现频率,并分析了极端事件的年变率,并统计了逐日平均气温的各级别出现频数。其次,采用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验和小波分析等方法近58年来气温变化的主要特征进行了分析。结果表明,近58年来平均气温呈增加趋势,线性增量率为0.42℃/10a,其震荡周期为30～35年;季节气温变化最显著特点为春季、秋季和冬季增温显著,夏季增温幅度较小。据季节温度震荡主周期判断,未来短时间内(3～5年)各季节均主要处于偏暖期。但,极端高温事件却在不断下降,变化幅度小于极端低温事件。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the daily mean temperature data of Urumqi from 1951 to 2008 years,established the threshold value Of the extreme climate events of high temperature and low temperature Urumqi in 58 years,and analyzed the change rate of extreme events in year different daily mean temperature ranks.The characteristics of temperature change in Urumqi for recent58 years were studied by using linear-trend estimate.Mann-Kendall catastrophe test and wavelet analysis and accumulative anomaly,the results indicated that the annual average temperature had an obviously increasing tendency during the post 58 years,and added 0.42℃ per 10 years,the main oscillatory period of the annual average temperature was 30～ 35 years.The change features of seasonal temperature were most notable,warmer sharply in spring,autumn and winter,but it is small change in summer.According to the main period of seasonal temperature changes,it will be mainly in the warmer period of 3～5 years in the future.更多还原