【作者】 丁相毅； 贾仰文； 王浩； 牛存稳；

【Author】 Ding Xiangyi;Jia Yangwen;Wang Hao;Niu Cunwen;China Institute of Water resources and Hydropower Research;

【机构】 中国水利水电科学研究院；

【摘要】 本文利用Mann-Kendall方法对海河流域及15个三级区的实测降雨、气温和天然径流量的变化趋势进行了显著性检验,计算了海河流域及15个三级区实测降雨、气温和天然径流量的变化信号指标——"指纹",以及反映要素变化剧烈程度的"信号强度"。为了对径流变化进行归因分析,以分析海河流域近50年的气候变化对径流量变化的贡献为例,基于全球气候模式和分布式水文模型,简单介绍了"指纹"算法在水循环要素演变归因分析中的应用。结果表明,在造成海河流域近几十年来径流量不断衰减的诸多因素中,气候变化占了约20%的比重。该方法为定量区分气候变化、下垫面变化、人工取用水变化等因素在径流、蒸发、地下水位等水循环要素演变中的贡献提供了新的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Mann-Kendall’s test was used to identify the trends of precipitation,temperature and runoff in the Haihe river basin as well as its 15 level-3 water resources areas(WRA3),furthermore, "fingerprint" which represents the change signals for each variate above was calculated.Based on the calculated "fingerprint", "single strength" which represents the variation degree of each variate during the period was calculated.To attribute the runoff change,the application of "fingerprint" algorithm in the attribution of runoff change was introduced,taking attributing the runoff change to climate change in the past 50 years as an example,coupling general climate models(GCMs) with hydrological model.The results indicate that,climate change accounts for about 20%during the factors resulting in the durative reduction of runoff in the Haihe river basin.The method brought forward in the study provides a new approach for quantitatively attributing the hydrological element change including runoff,evapotranspiration and groundwater table to different factors such as climate change,land use change,as well as anthropic water consumption.更多还原