【作者】 裴朔； 郑洪波；

【Author】 Pei Shuo;Zheng Hongbo;School of Environmental Science & Technology,Dalian University of Technology;

【机构】 大连理工大学环境学院；

【摘要】 由温室气体排放所引起的气候变暖问题已成为全世界人民所共同面对的巨大挑战。探讨区域人类活动对碳排放的影响,对制定相关政策实现碳减排目标有重要的意义。选取辽宁省2000—2016年碳排放及相关数据作为研究样本,基于STIRPAT,对辽宁省人口、富裕度(以人均GDP表示)、技术进步(以能源强度表示)、第二产业产值、第三产业产值和城镇化水平6种影响碳排放的因素进行了定量分析,并分析了影响因素的变化趋势。通过STIRPAT模型结果可知,辽宁省各影响因素对于碳排放的影响从大到小依次为:人口、城市化率、富裕度、第二产业产值、第三产业产值和技术进步。在此基础上通过灰色Verhulst模型对碳排放量进行了预测,结果表明,2017—2030年辽宁省碳排放始终呈上升趋势,没有出现峰值,但增长率逐渐降低。更多还原

【Abstract】 Global warming caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions has become a great challenge for all people around the world.The study on the impact of each human activity on the environment is important to the development of carbon emission reduction policy and the implementation of emission reduction targets. The carbon emission data of Liaoning Province from 2000 to 2016 are selected as the research samples. This paper,using the STIRPAT model,quantitatively analyzed the effects of population,affluence( in form of per capita GDP),technology( in form of energy intensity),output value of the secondary industry,output of the teriary industry and urbanization rate on carbon emissions in Liaoning. The results of ridge regression showed that the magnitude of the impact from large to small was: population,urbanization rate,affluence,the value of the secondary industry and the value of the teriary industry. On this foundation,the future carbon emissions of Liaoning Province were predicted by grey Verhulst model. The result showed that carbon emissions of Liaoning Province would keeping increase from 2017 to 2030 without carbon emissions peak,but the annual growth rate would be decreasing.更多还原