【作者】 李瑞青； 荀学义； 黄晓璐；

【Author】 LI Ruiqing;XUN Xueyi;HUANG Xiaolu;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Observatory;

【机构】 内蒙古自治区气象台；

【摘要】 针对2017年7月6日~7日内蒙古东部地区的降水过程,利用NCEP的GFS预报场资料为输入资料,反演得到集合动力因子预报系统中的14个动力因子以及集合平均动力因子,对强降水过程进行诊断分析和预报研究,结果表明,此次降水过程由高、低空急流,冷涡,副热带高压和辐合切变线等多个天气系统共同作用造成的。湿热力平流参数等多个动力因子预报降水在空间分布上与6小时观测降水基本一致,代表动力因子对降水落区具有较好的指示意义。ETS评分计算表明,动力因子对降水预报有一定的技巧,动力因子的预报效果明显。集合平均动力因子可以反映各种动力因子预报降水的特点,平均集合动力因子与观测降水落区的空间相关系数达到0.63,ETS评分为0.48,明显优于大部分单个动力因子统计结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the precipitation in the eastern Inner Mongolia from July 6 to7 2017, the diagnosis and forecasting research of the process are analyzed by using NCEP GFS and fourteen dynamic parameters in the system and the average ensemble dynamic parameter. The main conclusions are as follows: The precipitation process is caused by collective effect of multiple weather systems such as high and low level jet streams, cold vortex, subtropical high and convergence shear line. The moist thermodynamic advection parameter and other dynamic parameters have the similar spatial distribution with the 6 hours observed precipitation which means that the dynamic parameters have great indication about the rainfall area. The ETS score shows that the dynamic parameters have certain skills about the precipitation forecast,the dynamic parameters have obvious effect on precipitation forecast. The average ensemble dynamic parameter can reflect the characteristics of various dynamic parameters in predicting precipitation, the spatial correlation coefficient between average ensemble dynamic parameter and the observed precipitation area is 0.63, the ETS score is 0.48, significantly better than most single dynamic parameter statistics.更多还原