【作者】 郭斐； 邱耀东； 王正涛；

【Author】 Guo Fei;Qiu Yao-dong;Wang Zheng-tao;School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University;

【机构】 武汉大学测绘学院；

【摘要】 本文联合GUFM1和IGRF模型,从地磁功率谱、地磁强度、信息量-K熵、地磁极移等角度计算分析1590~2015年地球主磁场、偶极磁场和非偶极磁场长期变化的时间序列,预测地磁衰减和地磁极的倒转趋势。研究发现:地核流体在1700年前后开始步入混沌运动状态,地磁信息突变概率明显增强;过去400年来,地球主磁场持续衰减,自1900年来呈现出加速衰减趋势,南半球的衰减速率明显高于北半球,若保持当前衰减速率,则大约在1000年后,地球主磁场将衰减为0;在纬圈方向上,南地磁极持续向西漂移,累计漂移量为46.7°,在子午方向上,南地磁极漂移存在转折性,最大漂移量约为7°。分析认为,地磁场在未来较长的时间内仍会保持当前这种衰减趋势,且在千年后地球主磁场与其变化磁场强度将可能处于同一量级水平,这将预示着地磁场可能会发生急剧衰减,步入真正意义上的倒转。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this study,we predict the possibility of geomagnetic field reversal,calculating and analyzing the secular variation time series of geomagnetic power spectrum,geomagnetic intensity,information entropy,and geomagnetic pole drift from1590 to 2015.The core fluid started to enter the state of chaotic motion in approximately 1700,and the mutation probability of geomagnetic information obviously increased.In the last 400 years,the main geomagnetic field has continued to attenuate and has shown the trend of accelerated attenuation since 1900.The attenuation rate in the southern hemisphere is significantly higher than that in the northern hemisphere.If the current attenuation rate is maintained,the main geomagnetic field will be attenuated to zero after approximately 1000 years.In the direction of latitude circle,the south geomagnetic pole continues to drift westward,and the cumulative drift is 46.7°.The drift of the south geomagnetic pole in the meridian direction shows characteristics of swing,and the maximum drift is approximately 7°.The analysis indicates that the geomagnetic field still maintains the current attenuation trend for a long time in the future.In addition,the geomagnetic field and its variation magnetic field will be on the same intensity level after 1000 years.Thus,the geomagnetic field may undergo sharp attenuation,followed by reverse.更多还原