【作者】 廖廓； 何金海；

【Author】 Liao Kuo;He Jinhai;Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Fujian Meteorological Science Institude;

【机构】 南京信息工程大学； 福建省气象科学研究所；

【摘要】 本文以福建省为例,着眼气候上少雨的秋冬过渡期近年多雨涝事件的现象,分析了近55年降水强度演变特征,采用合成分析探讨了东亚季风主要环流系统及区域水汽、对流条件与福建秋冬之交降水强弱的联系机制。结果显示:(1)福建秋冬之交暴雨过程频数和整体降水强度都趋于增加,降水强度在2010年前后出现突变;(2)降水强(弱)年副高偏西(东)偏强(弱),东亚高纬环流较平直(经向度较大),东亚冬季风偏弱(强),冷空气主体偏北(南),有利(不利)于冷暖气流在福建的交汇。(3)降水强(弱)年福建上空水汽输送和对流条件均有利(不利)于强降水的发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 Fujian province is taken as the sample in this paper,which focuses on the phenomena of more frequent floods caused by rain during the transitional periods in summer and winter over recent years. Those periods were climatically scarce of rain in normal cases. The developing features of precipitation intensity in the past 55 years have been analyzed, adopting composite method so as to explore connections between the main circulation system of East Asian Monsoon, its regional vapor, convective conditions and the precipitation intensity between autumn and winter in Fujian province. The results show that i) Both the rainstorm frequency between autumn and winter in Fujian province and precipitation intensity are on an increase, with an abrupt change of precipitation intensity around the year 2010. ii) The year with strong(weak) precipitation intensity is featured of a west(east)-ward and stronger(weaker) subtropical high, and the East Asian high-altitude circulation is relatively straight(big meridional distribution). Meanwhile, the East Asian Winter Monsoon is weaker(stronger), and the main part of cold air is north(south)-ward, which is helpful(unhelpful) to the convergence of cold and warm air streams in Fujian. iii) In the year with strong(weak) precipitation intensity, the water vapor transportation and convections conditions over Fujian are both helpful(unhelpful) to the occurrence of heavy rain.更多还原