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财政收支形势分析与展望

Analysis and Forecast of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure

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【作者】 贾康程瑜

【Author】 Jia Kang;Cheng Yu;

【机构】 中国国际经济交流中心财政部财政科学研究所

【摘要】 2009年以来,国家于2008年四季度后密集出台的"进一步扩大内需,保持经济平稳较快发展"一揽子计划,取到较好实施效果,经济运行出现一系列积极变化,受国际金融危机冲击出现的经济增速较快下滑势头得到遏制,并呈现企稳回升态势,1~3季度实现GDP7.7%的增速后,全年经济增长率达到8%左右的预期目标已无悬念。财政收入自2009年5月份以来逐步回升,财政支出也保持高位增长,全年财政收支形势总体上虽不容乐观,但经过努力,应能实现财政收入增长8%的目标和把年度赤字控制在预算规定的规模之内。今后一段时期,必须更加重视将保增长与调结构、转方式、促改革相结合,继续实行和动态优化积极财政政策,并提高宏观政策的针对性、灵活性、有效性和可持续性。下一步财政政策在抓紧落实好已出台的各项政策措施的基础上,也要考虑仍然存在的不确定因素而研究准备预案,努力促进经济社会平稳较快发展。

【Abstract】 From 2009,the countries in the fourth quarter of 2008,intensive introduction policies package of " further expand domestic demand and maintain stable and rapid economic development",and then economic operations take a series of positive changes,economic grpwth appears to contain the trend and showed a recovery trend stabilized,1-3 quarter GDP have reached 7.7%growth rate,the annual economic growth rate reached 8%of the target is no longer suspense.Fiscal revenue in May this year has been the gradual recovery and fiscal spending to maintain high growth,financial revenue and expenditure throughout the year although the overall situation is not optimistic,but through the efforts,should be able to achieve revenue growth of 8%target and to control the annual deficits in the budget.The coming period,we must pay more attention to ensure growth and structural adjustment,transfer methods,and continue to implement dynamic optimization active fiscal policy and macroeconomic policies to improve the relevance,flexibility,effectiveness and sustainability.The next step we also take into account the remaining uncertainties is ready to plan and strive to promote stable and rapid economic and social development.

  • 【会议录名称】 中国经济分析与展望(2009~2010)
  • 【会议时间】2010-01
  • 【分类号】F812.4
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