【作者】 闫晓霞； 张金锁； 邹绍辉；

【Author】 YAN Xiao-xia;ZHANG Jin-suo;ZOU Shao-hui;Research Center for Energy Economy and Management,Xi’an University of Science and Technology;School of Management,Yan’an University;

【机构】 西安科技大学能源与经济管理研究中心； 延安大学管理学院；

【摘要】 能源结构调整的可行性取决于生产投入要素中能源间的可替代性。本文运用超越对数生产函数,采用GA-SA法(遗传算法-模拟退火法)对1995-2013年生产过程中的七大投入要素(煤炭、石油、天然气、非化石能源、资本、劳动力和技术)数据进行了分析优化,测算了能源要素间的替代弹性;设置了基准情景和新常态情景,再次运用GA-SA方法预测并分析了2014-2050年能源间的替代弹性。结果表明:运用GA-SA法模拟所得lnGDP的平均绝对误差为0.0015,表明运用GA-SA法精确度高;通过情景模拟,发现新常态情景下,非化石能源对煤炭、石油的替代弹性较大,天然气对煤炭和石油的替代弹性次之,说明非化石能源替代化石能源的可能性最强,化石能源间替代的可能性较弱,与1995-2013年所得数据比较,我国需在非化石能源替代石油、天然气替代煤炭和石油方面加大投资和研发力度。更多还原

【Abstract】 The feasibility of energy structure adjustment depends on the energy substitutability of production input factors.Translog Production Function,through GA-SA method(Genetic Algorithm-Simulated Annealing)is used to conduct analysis and optimization on seven input factors(coal,petroleum,gas,nonfossil energy,capital,labor and technology)of national product process from year 1995 to 2013.The substitution elasticity of energy factors is measured.It sets up baseline and the new normal scenes,predicts and analyzes the energy substitution elasticity of year 2014 to 2050through GA-SA method.The result says that,the mean absolute error of lnGDP simulated with GA-SA method is 0.0015,which proves the high precision of GA-SA method.With the scene simulation,it’s found that,under the new normal scene,non-fossil energy behaves high substitution elasticity to coalandpetroleum,and gas behaves inferior substitution elasticity to coal and petroleum.It explains that,non-fossil energy shows the strongest substitution feasibility to fossil energy,and substitution feasibility among fossil energy is relatively weak.Comparing with the data from 1995 to 2013,our nation should boost investment and research in the substitution of petroleum with non-fossil energy,substitution of coal and petroleum with gas.更多还原