【作者】 陈家金； 李丽纯； 林晶； 王加义； 郑东旗； 黄川容；

【Author】 Chen Jiajin;Li Lichun;Lin Jing;Wang Jiayi;Zhen Dongqi;Huang Chuanrong;Fujian Institute of Meteorological Science;Fuzhou Meteorology Bureau;

【机构】 福建省气象科学研究所； 福州市气象局；

【摘要】 通过辨识影响福建省枇杷生长发育和产量的主要致灾因子,分析枇杷面对气象灾害的敏感性和暴露性,考虑种植区的防灾减灾能力,构建出枇杷气象灾害综合风险评估指标体系,利用枇杷种植区历年气象资料,枇杷种植面积、产量及其他社会经济资料,采用层次分析法和熵权系数法融合的方法计算各风险指标的权重,计算出各评估单元的风险指数,进而构建枇杷气象灾害的综合风险评估模型,应用GIS技术制作出风险精细区划图,评估枇杷气象灾害的综合风险。结果表明:致灾危险性对综合风险的影响最大,起着主要作用;重度以上的综合风险主要分布在福建5个主要山脉的中高海拔山区以及枇杷种植面积大的莆田市、福清市、云霄县,轻度综合风险区主要分布在中南部沿海县市的低海拔种植区(除种植大县和东山县外),其余种植区的综合风险属中度。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to find out the risk identify of Loquat growing under complicated terrain in Fujian, thus to avoid planting in high risk areas, integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of Loquat in Fujian province was conducted by disaster risk analysis theory. In this study, an index system for the integrated risk evaluation on meteorological disasters of Loquat in Fujian province was constructed, based on the identification of the major disaster-causing factors affecting the Loquat growth and yield, and from the analysis of the sensitivity and exposed property of Loquat to meteorology disasters, and the disaster prevention and mitigation capability of Loquat growing regions in the province. In addition, the risk index of each evaluation unit was calculated based on the yearly meteorological data, Loquat planting areas and yield, and other socio-economic data in Loquat growing region in Fujian, and by using the weight of risk indices determined by AHP method and entropy weight coefficient methods. Therefore, an integrated risk evaluation model of meteorological disasters was established and a fine risk division map was drawn by GIS to evaluate the risks of the meteorological disasters. The growing region was divided into four grade risk areas, including mild risk area, moderate risk area, severe risk area and severity risk area. The result showed that: on the aspect of risk factors composition for the meteorological disasters of Loquat, potential hazard of the disaster-causing factors was the determinant factor influencing the synthetic risk, vulnerability of the planting area taken second place, and the damage prevention and mitigation capacity only played an alleviative role; In the province, the Loquat growth regions with severe and more severe integrated risk of meteorological disasters for planting Loquat were mainly distributed in the mountain areas with middle-high elevation of the five major mountain ranges, and counties with large growing areas including Putian city, Fuqing city and Yunxiao county, the regions with light integrated risk were mainly in the coastal counties with low elevation in the middle south of the province(except large planting counties and Dongshan county), and the regions with moderate integrated risk were distributed in the other areas of the province. Based on the risk evaluation results, and combined with Loquat damage examples in history, it could be verified that the risk evaluation and division results was consistent with the actual situation. The results of the study could offer science basis for the adjustment and optimization of the distribution for Loquat planting, and basis for reducing the entire risk of Loquat planting in Fujian province.更多还原