【作者】 段磊； 郑力； 刘代军；

【Author】 DUAN Lei;ZHENG Li;LIU Daijun;Department of Industrial Engineering,Tsinghua University;China Airborne Missile Academy;

【机构】 清华大学工业工程系； 中国空空导弹研究院；

【摘要】 为了对技术成熟困难度(AD2)方面的信息进行深入分析与创新应用。基于AD2量化计算模型和能够容易获得的专家评估信息,提出一种采用模拟退火粒子群优化(SAPSO)算法,求解某一关键技术元素中各技术特征权重系数的方法,并创新性将该方法与混沌序列、蒙特卡洛仿真技术结合,去估算实现技术进步所需消耗成本的区间范围。仿真结果证明了该方法的正确性及其用于成本区间范围估算的可行性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to promote the in-depth analysis and innovative application of information on advancement degree of difficulty(AD2),based on the quantification model of AD2 and the results of expert evaluating method which are relatively easy to get,this paper presents a SAPSO method which can calculate the weight coefficients of the technical features in a Critical Technology Element(CTE).Moreover,by creatively combining the SAPSO method mentioned above and the Monte Carlo simulation technique based on chaos sequence,an innovative approach is also proposed to estimate the range of cost for achieving technological progress.The simulation results show that the SAPSO method is correct and it is feasible to estimate the range of cost by the SAPSO method.更多还原