【作者】 游立军； 张容焱； 唐振飞； 高建芸； 林昕； 文明章；

【Author】 YOU Lijun;ZHANG Rongyan;TANG Zhengfei;GAO Jianyun;LIN Xin;WEN Mingzhang;Fujian Climate Center;

【机构】 福建省气候中心；

【摘要】 本文以位于福建省三明市宁化县境内的渔潭流域为例研究具备完整水文观测资料的的山洪流域灾害风险评估方法。首先利用雨量和流量资料率定流域的TopModel模型参数,把根据实地考察结果确定的致灾临界流量和率定的模型参数回代模拟得到致灾临界雨量;同时结合FloodArea淹没模型,获取不同临界水位下的淹没范围,结合GIS技术确定淹没范围的影响程度,从而实现山洪灾害风险的动态评估。利用研究成果在2012年进行了业务试运行,结果表明确定的临界雨量比较符合该流域的实际情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper takes Yutan basin, which located in Ninghua,Sanming,Fujian, as an example to develop a method to assess the flash flood risk in basins with hydrological data. The assessment process is as follow: 1) By using rainfall and water flow data, a set of parameters of the hydrological model, TopModel, is determined. 2) Get the water flow threshold of the flash flood hazard in field inquiry. 3) Figure out a corresponding rainfall threshold by modeling with the parameters got in 1) and the threshold got in 2). 4) Get flood area of the flow threshold value by modeling with the hydrodynamic model, FloodArea. And then the damage level of the flood area can be got by applying GIS technology. The rainfall simply indicates a damage level by employing this method, thus the risk assessment is accomplished quickly and dynamically.更多还原