【作者】 姚玉璧； 张强； 李耀辉； 王莺； 王劲松；

【Author】 YAO Yubi;ZHANG Qiang;LI Yaohui;WANG Ying;WANG Jingsong;China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster,Gansu Province Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster,Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration;Meteorological Bureau of Dingxi City;

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室； 甘肃省定西市气象局；

【摘要】 在全球变暖的背景下,干旱发生的频率和强度呈增加趋势,由于干旱灾害所引发的水资源匮乏、粮食危机、生态恶化(如荒漠化)等,直接威胁到国家的粮食安全和社会经济发展,干旱灾害风险评估及应急管理的技术水平亟待提高。本文介绍了干旱灾害风险评估研究领域的主要科技进展。在系统总结以往研究成果基础上,进行了干旱灾害风险分析,阐述了对干旱风险评估的科学认识,归纳了灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境的脆弱性、承灾体暴露度和防灾减灾能力的主要特征及其主要评估方法。从科学发展趋势和社会经济发展需求角度,思考了干旱灾害风险评估技术发展面临的主要科学问题及未来科学发展途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of droughts have an increasing trend. Water scarcity, food crisis and ecological deterioration(such as desertification, etc.) which were caused by drought disasters have a direct threat to the food security and socio-economic development of the country. The further improvement of the technical level of drought disaster risk assessment and emergency management is now an urgent affair. This article described the major scientific and technological progress in the field of drought disaster risk assessment. Based on a systematic summary of the research results in the past, the article had done the following things: the risk of drought disasters was analyzed; a scientific understanding of drought risk assessment was summarized; disaster hazard risk, disaster emerged environmental vulnerability, exposure degree of hazard bearing body and both main characteristics and main assessment technology of the prevent and the mitigate of disasters was concluded. From the point of view of scientific development trends and socio-economic development needs, the main scientific problems and future development pathways of drought disaster risk assessment techniques was also concerned and discussed in the article. In China, the traditional way to defence natural disaster is emergency management, that is, disaster mitigation and prevention were only started after the emergence of disaster, and action of social forces and public resources was all arranged temporarily. This kind of management now cannot suit new requirement for the institutionalization management of drought, "over" or "under" reaction to disasters could be easier to appear. As the appearance of drought became more frequent and national requirement for the disaster prevention and mitigation became higher, it is obliged to transform from emergency management to risk management. In order to improve the risk management, study on the characteristic of risks and risk assessment must be done. A scientific and practicable risk assessment method must be developed, so that assessment to the influence and damage caused by drought on life, society and properties of humans can be done correctly and accurately, both before and after the drought appearance. By analysing the mechanism of the appearance of drought and intension of risk management, starting from modern arid climate disaster risk management, the establishment of proper arid disaster risk management assessment mechanism is explored and discussed.更多还原