【作者】 韩兰英； 张强； 马鹏里； 姚玉璧； 万信； 贾建英； 王劲松； 王莺；

【Author】 HAN Lan-ying;ZHANG Qiang;MA Peng-li;YAO Yu-bi;Wan Xin;JIA Jian-ying;WANG Jin-song;Wang Ying;Key(Open) Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA/Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA;Northwest Regional Climate Center;College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University;Meteorology Bureau of Gansu;Key (Open) Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of CMA /Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA;

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室； 西北区域气候中心； 兰州大学大气科学学院； 甘肃省气象局；

【摘要】 21世纪,西南干旱灾害农业综合损失率远超过全国平均水平,给人类生活带来了巨大的风险。本文依据灾害系统理论,利用遥感、气象和地理信息数据与技术建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的风险指数和模型,基于4个因子建立农业干旱灾害综合风险评估模型,在GIS平台下计算了干旱灾害风险指数(DRI)。结果表明,西南干旱风险格局模式具有明显的地带性和复杂性,全区并不一致,高风险区主要位于四川盆地和三省交界处,北部高于南部,东部高于西部,从西南到东北依次增加。随着DRI的变化,干旱风险的模式具有不同的格局。西南干旱灾害风险主要受复杂地形和多样气候带的影响,还受植被盖度、农业经济水平、土壤状况等地理环境影响,同时,喀斯特地貌和相对薄弱的抗旱能力也使得西南区域农业干旱风险较高。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the 21 century, the agricultural comprehensive lose of drought disaster exceeds largely the national averaged value in the Southwest region. In this paper, based on the metrological data, geography data, soil data and remote sensing data, building the factors and model of the comprehensive risk assessment of the agricultural drought hazard factor risk, the vulnerability of the disaster pregnant environment, the sensibility and exposure of the disaster-bearing objects,and the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation. The results indicated that the comprehensive risk of the agriculture drought disaster has obviously zonality and complicated in the Southwest China. The extremely high risk region lies in the eastern region, north region larger than south region and increased from southwest to northeast. The drought risk index(DRI) could well express the drought disaster risk in Southwest China. The pattern of the drought disaster risk changed with DRI. The hazard factor risk, vulnerability of the pregnant environment, the sensibility and exposure of the disaster-bearing objects,the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation of the drought disaster risk all controlled the drought disaster risk pattern.更多还原