【作者】 安昕； 孟鹏； 廖国进； 李崇； 夏传栋； 李典；

【Author】 MENG Peng;AN Xin;LIAO Guojin;XIA Chu;ong;LI Chong;WU Yutong;Shenyang Municipal Meteorological Bureau;

【机构】 沈阳市气象局；

【摘要】 以沈阳市东陵区观测站1951—2012年逐月降水量为基础,采用极比、标准偏差、气候倾向率和Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,分析了该地区年际及四季降水的稳定性、变化趋势及突变特征。结果表明:沈阳市自1951年以来,年际降水相对稳定呈波动下降趋势,其中1953—1982年为显著减少时期,气候倾向率为-84.822mm/10a,1983—2012年为缓慢减少时期,年际降水在1961年突变性减少,突变之后降水量平均减少146.2mm。近年代春季降水极不稳定,降水序列有微弱增加,不存在气候突变点。夏季降水较稳定呈趋势减少,倾向率为-15.916mm/10a,在1961年突变性减少,突变之后平均减少120.0mm。秋季降水极不稳定呈微弱减少趋势,没有明显突变点。冬季降水极不稳定有微弱增加趋势,近20a增加显著,在2004年突变性增加,突变后平均增加14.7mm。年降水、夏秋季降水在1982年之前降水明显减少,1983年之后变化相对平稳;冬春季在1996年之后表现出增加趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 This is to analyze stability,change trend and abrupt change characteristics of yearly and seasonal precipitation of this district adopting ultimate ratio,standard deviation,climate inclination rate,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test based on monthly precipitation from 1951 to 2012of Dongling District observation station of Shenyang.The results show that yearly precipitation of Shenyang is relatively stable with fluctuation of descending trend since 1951.The period from 1953 to 1982 reveals obvious decrease and climate inclination rate is-84.822mm/10 a.The period from 1983 to 2012 reveals slow decrease.In 1961,yearly precipitation shows abrupt decrease and then precipitation shows average decrease of 146.2mm.In recent years,precipitation in spring is not stable and precipitation series show slightly increases but no abrupt change.Precipitation in summer is relatively stable with a decreasing trend.Inclination rate is-15.916mm/10 a.In 1961,precipitation shows abrupt decrease and then precipitation shows average decrease of 120.0mm.Precipitation in autumn is very unstable with a slightly decreasing trend.It shows no abrupt change.Precipitation in winter is unstable with a slightly increasing trend.It shows obvious increase of approximate 20 a.In 2004,precipitation shows abrupt increase and then precipitation shows average increase of 14.7mm.Before 1982,yearly precipitation and precipitation in summer and winter decrease obviously.After 1983,changes are relatively stable.After 1996,precipitation in winter and spring shows increasing trend.更多还原