【作者】 江俊杰； 孙卫国； 裴兴云；

【Author】 JIANG Jun-jie;SUN Wei-guo;PEI Xing-yun;Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;

【机构】 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室； 南京信息工程大学应用气象学院；

【摘要】 根据长三角地区1960~2010年的逐日气候资料,采用线性回归、累积距平和Morlet小波变换等方法,分析了近51a长三角地区的气候变化特征。结果表明:区域平均气温呈增加趋势,最低温度增加最快,最高温度增加较慢;年平均气温自南向北递减,沿海地区递减滞后于内陆地区;上海及杭州湾增温速率较快,浙江南部则相对缓慢。年降水量呈波动变化特点,夏、冬两季降水增加趋势明显;年降水量及雨日数自北向南增大,倾向率具有明显的区域性特点。年降水量存在着13 a左右、6~8 a、3~4 a和1~2 a的变化周期,气温变化具有32 a以上、12 a左右、4~6 a和1~2 a的变化周期,其中两者1~2a周期震荡能量最强。长三角地区气候变化与城市化进程、海气相互作用、极涡、西太平洋副高等存在显著的相关关系。长三角地区气候逐渐变暖,降水呈集中化趋势,导致发生旱涝灾害的不确定性增加,在今后的工农业生产和区域经济发展中应加以重视。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on daily temperature and precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations in Yangtze River Delta region during 1960 to 2010,using linear regression method,accumulative anomaly method and Morlet wavelet analysis method,the characteristics and tendencies of annual variation were analyzed.The Results showed that:(1)The annual average temperature,annual average high temperature and annual average low temperature increased significantly;and annual average low temperature increased fastest with annual average high temperature increased slowest.The annual average temperature decreased from south to north,but the coastland is slower than the inland.The annual average temperature in Shanghai and Hangzhou bay area increased rapidly,but the southen Zhengjiang increased relatively slow.(2)The annual precipitation had fluctuation change characteristics,but the precipitation increased obvious in summer and winter.The annual precipitation increased from north to south,but their climate trend had distinct characteristics in different regions.(3) The annual precipitation has the periods of about 13,6-8,3-4,and 1-2a,and the annual average temperature has the periods of above 32,12,4~6,2~3,and 1~2a,the 1~2a cycle concussion was most obvious.(4) the climate change of Yangtze River Delta region were affected by urbanization、air-sea interaction and the main climate system(such as hemisphere polar vortex area index and the western Pacific subtropical high area index) significantly.The climate was warming and the precipitation was more centralized in Yangtze River Delta region resulted in more drought and flood disasters and bring bad effect to the local industry and agriculture production.更多还原