1992-2002年中国生产性碳排放影响因素分析:基于I-O的结构分解分析

【作者】 张焕波； 齐晔；

【机构】 清华大学公共管理学院；

【摘要】 本文运用基于I-O的结构分解方法,对比分析了1992-1997和1997-2002两个阶段中影响生产性碳排放各大因素的贡献:能源使用结构,能源强度,中间投入产出技术(里昂惕夫逆),最终使用的部门结构,最终使用的分配结构和最终使用总量。研究发现碳排放增加主要来自于经济总量的迅速增加,但是以能源强度下降为代表的技术进步在两个阶段都为减少碳排放发挥了重要作用,使得我国的碳排放增量没有随着经济增长大幅增加。经济结构变化在1992-1997阶段促进了碳排放的增加,在1997-2002阶段也向着低碳方向发展,但是还没有发挥主要作用。在降低碳排放方面,产业结构调整存在较大的调整空间。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper provides an empirical analysis of the comparative impact of various factors on production-based CO2 emissions for China during the two periods of 1992-1997 and 1997-2002. Fuel mix,energy intensity, input mix, sector structure of final demand, final demand composition and final demand level are investigated respectively. Results show that, the main reason for the increase of production-based CO2 emission was the fast growing economical scale. However, technology factors, especially energy intensity had been reducing CO2 emission as a counterpart of expanding GDP. Economy structure began to transform into a low carbon pattern; however, there is still long way to go. In order to fulfill the ultimate goal of sustainable development, industrial structure of big potential to adjust should be our main focus and accordingly investment structure should also be changed radically.更多还原