【作者】 臧良震； 张彩虹；

【Author】 ZANG Liangzhen;ZHANG Caihong;College of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University;

【机构】 北京林业大学经济管理学院；

【摘要】 城市化、经济发展方式与碳排放之间紧密联系,三者是内在统一的。本文利用1952-2012年的相关数据,建立了向量自回归模型,并运用脉冲响应函数分析了三者之间的动态响应关系。通过研究发现:从长期来看,城市化、经济发展方式和CO2排放三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系;当前过快的城市化进程不利于我国经济发展方式的转变;目前的经济发展方式虽然能够推动城市化进程,但由于我国的经济发展方式仍然是以投资拉动为主,导致影响效果并不明显且具有一定的滞后性;随着城市化进程的加快,CO2排放量不断增加;当前的经济发展方式对CO2的减排效果在短期内有效,但是长期效果不明显。在适当控制当前城市化的发展速度的前提条件下来提高当前的消费水平是实现经济良性循环发展和完成低碳减排目标的主要措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urbanization, economic development pattern and carbon dioxide are close and inherent. Based on the data from 1952 to 2012, this paper established a vector auto regression model and analyzed the dynamic response relationship by using the impulse response function. The results show that urbanization, economic development pattern and carbon dioxide have a stable equilibrium relationship in the long run; currently, the rapid urbanization is not conductive to China’s economic development pattern; although the current economic development pattern could promote the urbanization progress, the effects are insignificant and lagging because of the economic development pattern which is mainly driven by investment; the carbon emissions are increasing with the rapid urbanization; the current economic development pattern has a effect on the carbon emissions in a short period but not obvious in a long time. Controlling the urbanization progress properly and improving the consume are the main measures to realize the virtuous cycle of economic development and achieve the the goal of low carbon emissions.更多还原