【作者】 张文军；

【Author】 Wen-jun Zhang (Department of Plant Protection,Northwestern Agricultural University,Xianyang 712100)

【机构】 西北农业大学植保系；

【摘要】 自然灾害具有群发性和准周期性的特点,其共同成因是天文运动.天文运动是生态系统、病虫系统及农业生产异常的初始根本因素。用天文因素预测农业,生态及病虫灾害的准确度高,因而在这些学科中开辟现代灾害研究领域有重要的理论和实际意义.生态学、植物保护也应做向宏观、大系统、灾害方向发展的学科调整.文中对若干自然灾害的今后发生趋势作了分析预报.最后,建议成立国家减灾委员会和国家病虫预报局。更多还原

【Abstract】 Natural disasters possess the characters of synchronism and pseudo -periodicity,and their general cause is astronomical movement.Astronomical movement is the original and fundamental factor of the abnormality of ecosystem,pest system and farm production.It has the high precision to forecast the disasters of agriculture,ecology and pest applying the astronomical factors.For this,there is the important significance to set up modern disaster fields in these disciplines.Ecology and plant protection should also adjust the discipline development to macroscopic,macrosystematic and catastrophic direction.Meanwhile,the occurrence law and the future tendency of several natural disasters are analyzed and predicted.Finally,we suggest that the national commission of disaster reduction and national bureau of pest forecast should be established in the future.更多还原