【作者】 董振宁； 何斌；

【Author】 DONG Zhen-ning,HE Bin (School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China)

【机构】 广东工业大学管理学院；

【摘要】 该文依据平滑预测法构建了五阶供应链模型,利用witness软件进行仿真实验,比较信息共享前后供应链上各级成员的订单及库存变化。作者首次运用实验证明,在订货提前期一定,需求预测方法、安全库存不变的情况下,信息共享能有效弱化牛鞭效应,并使库存更加平稳,降低库存成本。同时该文比较详细地介绍了witness建模的详细设计,为其他同行建模提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Exponential Smoothing forecasting method is used to construct a five-echelon supply chain model and witness software is used in the simulation,which compares the differences of order quantity and inventory between whether or not information sharing in the supply chain members.With the experiment,it is proved that information sharing can effectively reduce the bullwhip effect and the inventory cost while the lead-time,demand forecasting method and safety stock quantity keep changeless.At the same time,the detailed design of witness model is introduced, which can give some reference to other researchers.更多还原