【作者】 赵红岩； 张旭东； 王有恒； 张强； 马鹏里； 姚辉； 孙兰东； 瞿汶； 毛玉琴； 杨小利；

【Author】 ZHAO Hong-Yan1,2,ZHANG Xu-Dong2,WANG You-Heng2,ZHANG Qiang1,MA Peng-Li2,YAO Hui1,SUN Lan-Dong2,QU Wen2,MAO Yu-Qin3,YANG Xiao-Li4 1 Lanzhou Arid Institute of Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu province,Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA,Gansu Lanzhou 730020,China 2 Northwest Regional Climate Center,Gansu Lanzhou 730020,China 3 Qingyang Meteorological Bureau,Gansu Qingyang 745000,China 4 Pingliang Meteorological Bureau,Gansu Pingliang 744000,China

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点试验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室； 西北区域气候中心； 庆阳市气象局； 平凉市气象局；

【摘要】 本文选取甘肃陇东8个气象观测站的月平均气温、月降水量和月蒸发量及水文资料,分析陇东气候变化历史演变趋势及其对水资源的影响。结果指出:1971～2009年陇东年降水量总的变化呈减少趋势,平均每10年减少9.3毫米,尤以近20年减少最为明显;年平均气温总的变化呈上升趋势,气温每10年升高0.41℃。年蒸发量总体呈增加趋势,平均每10年增加9.3毫米。分析的结果还指出:年降水量等于500毫米的等值线和年蒸发量等于1550毫米的等值线南移,半干旱区面积增大。陇东整体暖干化导致董志塬地下水水位下降了30米,导致水资源分布不均匀;地表水利用率低,导致每年水蚀表土0.2～1.0米3,严重的达2厘米以上。所以正确评估陇东水资源的脆弱性和干旱灾害程度,提出科学的抗旱对策是我们应对气候变化必须考虑的。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of the daily average temperature,monthly precipitation,monthly evaporation and the hydrological data from 8 weather stations in east of Gansu(Longdong),the trend of historical evolution of climate change and its impact on water resources were analyzed.The results showed that the annual precipitation in Longdong demonstrated a decreasing trend from 1971 to 2009,and the decreasing slope was 9.3mm.10a-1,which was more severe in recent 20 years.The annual average temperature showed an increasing trend,and the increasing slope was 0.41.10a-1,The annual evaporation showed an increasing trend,and the increasing slope is 9.3mm.10a-1,The contour with 500mm annual precipitation and the contour with 1550mm annual evaporation both move towards south.The area of semi-arid increased obviously.The groundwater-level of Dongzhiyuan fell 30 meters and the water resources distributed unevenly,which were mainly caused by warm-dry climate tendency.The utilization rate of the source water was low.The soil of water erosion decreased 0.2 to 10 m3 every year even up to 2cm in some area.So in order to deal with the challenge of the climatic change,the vulnerability of water resources and the extent of the arid meteorological disaster should be evaluated correctly,and some scientific countermeasures for drought should be proposed.更多还原