【作者】 孙秉珍； 马卫民； 赵海燕；

【Author】 Sun Bingzhen~(1,2) Ma Weimin~1 Zhao Haiyan~(1,3) 1.School of Economic & Management,Tongji University, Shanghai 200092 2.School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070 3.Vocational Education Department Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 200092

【机构】 同济大学经济与管理学院； 兰州交通大学,交通运输学院； 上海工程技术大学,高职学院；

【摘要】 在高度不确定的环境下,科学的应急决策方案是有效控制危机局面、减少损的关键。突发危机事件应急决策具有时间紧迫、资源有限以及信息不完整、不充分等特征且需要决策者做出面向全局的实时应急决策。基于此,本文把粗糙集理论应用于突发危机事件应急决策问题,在双论域粗糙集的框架下给出突发危机事件应急决策问题基本特征的描述与刻画。进而引入双论域上最小风险Bayes决策思想,建立了基于双论域决策粗糙集的实时应急决策模型。该模型充分突出决策者在应急决策中的主体性和主动性,使得决策者能够依据危机事件的实时信息和现实情景以及不断变化的动态演化特征做出风险最小的应急决策。通过模拟的数值算例说明了该方法的具体操作步骤并验证了其有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The key steps of controlling the crisis situation and minimizing Losses is make an scientific emergency decision-making as quickly as possible under the conditional of uncertainty and emergency. The decision-maker should make a global online emergency decision-making with the characteristics of the urgently time,limited human and material recourses and incomplete information.The paper developed a rough set model over two universes to handle this problem,which included the universe on all candidate emergency plans and the universe on all characteristic of the emergency plans and.In this paper, the optimal decision results are given by calculating the minimum expected risk loss which is based the idea of minimum risk Bayes decision,i.e.,the model of online emergency decision-making based on decision-theoretic rough set over two universes.Due this model,the decision-maker will play a principal and initiatively role in the process of emergency decision -making so that an optimal decision-making with minimum risk will be found for decision-maker by considering the online information and the scenarios of reality and the characteristic of dynamic developing of emergency incidence.Finally,the validity of the model and the steps of the methods are tested by a numerical example.更多还原