【作者】 张玉红； 刘强；

【Author】 ZHANG Yuhong LIU Qiang (College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100)

【机构】 中国海洋大学工程学院；

【摘要】 风暴潮灾害风险由潮灾危险性、承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力所决定,其中承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力构成了潮灾易损性。结合目前国内对风暴潮灾害危险性研究较为深入,而对易损性研究欠缺的现状,文章建立了风暴潮灾害易损性风险区划模型并应用于青岛风暴潮灾害。首先根据风暴潮灾害风险因素建立了风险评价指标体系,然后采用聚类分析将研究区域进行综合分类,再用熵值法和灰色关联分析方法分别对各地区潮灾风险进行量化,最后应用熵值-灰色组合方法进行综合风险区划排名,将青岛9区市划分为4个不同风险等级,得出了风暴潮灾害的区域性差异,从而为区域性制定防灾减灾措施与规划提供了科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The factors that affect the risk of storm surge include the characteristics of the disaster itself,and the vulnerability and exposure of disaster bearers and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity consist of the vulnerability of storm surge.Based on the research status that more studies on storm surge itself than disater bearers, the article builts the risk zonging model of storm surge vulnerability applied to Qingdao.Firstly,the paper establishes the index system of risk evaluation according to the storm surge disaster risk factors,and then the risk areas are classified through the cluster analysis.Sencondly,the method of entropy and grey correlation analysis are used to quantitatively evaluate the risk of storm surge.Finally,the different risk areas is ranked comprenhensively and divided into 4 risk levels by the means of combination of the two methods before.The result reveals the regional differences of storm surge disaster risk,offerring scientific basis for gorvonment to make prevention and mitigation measures according to local conditions.更多还原