【作者】 宋国青；

【Author】 Guoqing SONG Professor,CCER at Peking University

【机构】 北京大学国家发展研究院；

【摘要】 <正>首先讨论最近几个月工业生产、贸易、房地产投资的变化和旱灾的影响,其次通过货币量数据讨论全球化下经济波动和宏观调控的特点,接着对最近的贷款增加进行分析,最后讨论投资报酬率和投资率。一、工业生产如图1钢材产量数据所示,去年7-10月钢材产量出现快速下跌,11月与10更多还原

【Abstract】 Both export and import collapsed after July 2008.Because import declined faster than export,monthly trade surplus rose to a historical record in Jan 2009.While import price has decreased by 30 percent since the peak in August,export price remained at the same level in the past months.The trade surplus in real term decreased and made a negative contribution to GDP in the second half of 2008.However,cheaper import price saved China ten billion dollars each month.Money supply explained recent economic situation well.The 12-month growth rate of M3,which is defined as M2 plus commercial banks’ liabilities to other financial companies,dropped below average in the 3rd quarter of 2008.Many people attributed the recent economic downturn to external factors.But China is a huge country,and the interaction between China and other economy is very important.The deterioration of financial crisis in the 3 rd quarter of 2008 can be explained by the macroeconomic contraction in China and other non-US economy.As along with globalization,interest rates in different countries are linked together through capital flow.Synchronous monetary policies amplify the fluctuation of world economy.Among 1.6 trillion newly added loan in Jan 2009,600 billion was financed through commercial bills.When there is no credit control and insufficient demand for loan,banks would provide credit at interest rate which is lower than official interest rate for loan and close to the interest rate for excess reserve after risk adjustment.Although the capital return rate of firms drops recently,it is still much higher than that during the deflation period in 1998.The capital return rate in the forthcoming years will be high enough for China to maintain a high investment rate.更多还原