【作者】 黄德春； 林丽； 张长征；

【Author】 De-chun Huang1 Li Lin2 Chang-zheng Zhang 3 (1,2,3 Business School of Hohai University, Jiangsu, Nanjing, 211100)

【机构】 河海大学商学院；

【摘要】 国内CPI连续创下新高,缓解通胀压力已成为当前经济工作的重点。我国物流成本占GDP比例一直偏高,是推动物价上涨的重要因素。基于此,本文从物流成本角度,采用2005至2011年一季度的宏观数据,通过相关分析和回归分析研究通货膨胀的成因,找出物流成本对通货膨胀的传导机制。研究表明,在剔除了各控制变量影响的条件下,物流成本与通货膨胀率显著正相关;物流成本的存在放大了企业成本对通货膨胀压力的推动作用,并通过PPI对CPI的传导作用,导致通胀压力增大;另外,食品价格,货币供应,国际传导,经济增长,企业成本以及原材料、燃料、动力购进价格均是通货膨胀压力的推动力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently, domestic CPI hit the record high continuously, and to ease inflationary pressures have become the focus of economic work. China’s logistics costs to GDP ratio stay high for many years, which is an important factor in promoting inflation. Based on this, to identify logistics cost inflation transmission mechanism, this paper studied the causes of inflation by correlation and regression analysis model, from the perspective of logistics costs, and with the data from 2005 to the first quarter of 2011. The results showed that, excluding the impact of various control variables, logistics costs correlated positively with inflation rate. Existing of logistics costs enlarged the promote power of business costs to inflationary pressures, and through the role of PPI to the CPI, resulting in inflationary pressures. In addition, food prices, money supply, international transmission of economic growth,business costs and the prices of raw materials, fuel, power are the driving force of inflation.更多还原