【作者】 高涛； 陈彦才；

【Author】 GAO Tao1,2,CHEN Yan-cai3(1.Inner Mongolia Meteorological Institute,Hohhot 010051,China;2.Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018;3.Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Hohhot 010010)

【机构】 内蒙古气象科学研究所； 内蒙古农业大学； 内蒙古农牧业厅；

【摘要】 在采集、整理和分析了内蒙古10个产粮盟市三种主要粮食作物小麦(1961-2008年)、玉米和马铃薯(1979-2008年)的单产数据和农区58个气象站的气温及降水量资料(1961-2008年)的基础上,归纳了内蒙古农区作物生长期的气候特征,计算了干燥度指数并利用统计回归模型分析了干旱对单产的影响并计算了影响系数,预估了未来不同增温幅度和降水量配置的温湿条件下粮食作物气象单产的变化,并提出了应对气候变化内蒙古保证粮食产量的建议。结果显示:农区作物生长期的气温在近48a间呈上升趋势,在2001-2008年间10个盟市平均温度比气候均值(1971-2000年平均值)增加了0.9℃,同期降水量比气候均值减少了48.9mm;农区三种作物生长期的干燥度指数逐年代上升,特别是近8a(2001-2008年)小麦、玉米、马铃薯生长期干燥度指数比20世纪60年代分别上升了1.29、1.82和1.49,说明近8a的干旱比60年代严重;干旱对气象单产的影响系数表明在内蒙古不同作物的主要产区作物受干旱影响均比较显著,赤峰、锡林郭勒市和乌兰察布市的气象单产受干旱影响较大,呼伦贝尔市和巴彦淖尔市受干旱影响较小;对单产变化的预估结果表明降水量维持在气候均值水平时,温度如果增加0.2℃、0.5℃和1.0℃时绝大多数盟市会造成减产,增温幅度越大,减产越多;当增幅为0.2℃时,降水量增加越多增产幅度越大;增幅为0.5℃时,只有降水量增加20%以上才有望增产;温度增加1.0℃,降水量增加30%时大多数盟市仍会减产,仅在个别盟市有可能增产。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on comprehensive collections of the yield data of three major crops,including wheat(1961-2008),corn and potato(1979-2008),local precipitation and temperature observation records(1961-2008) at 58 stations scattered in 10 cultivation regions in Inner Mongolia,local climate characters of grain growing season were generated.In addition,a kind of aridity index was calculated by using local temperature and precipitation data.Consulting to the aridity indices which were employed to represent the warm-wet conditions of the growing season,the drought influence on the yields of the 10 regions was estimated through utilizing the statistical regression method.The impacting coefficiency of the drought was gained from the regression function.Furthermore,under the supposed climate conditions,future yield varieties of the 10 regions were pre-estimated by using the regression model as well.Besides,the ideas of adapting the climate change for local crop production was presented in this study.The results indicate that the temperature was rising up continuously in the past 48 years.Especially for the term of 2001-2008,the averaged increase value of the 10 regions had reached by 0.9℃ compared to the climatological mean temperature(1971-2000).Concurrently,the precipitation of 2001-2008 had reduced by 48.9mm.Moreover,the aridity index displayed an increasing trend in decadal scale.Especially in the recent 8 years(2001-2008).By comparing with the index value of 1960s,the indices of wheat,corn and potato increased by 1.29,1.82 and 1.49,respectively.That means the drought was more seriously then that of the 1960s.On a whole view,the drought influence on different crop yields of major panting regions is significant which can be identified from the drought impacting coefficiency for dissimilar regions:Chifeng,Xilin Gol and Ulanqab shown vulnerable to the drought,conversely,Hulun Buir and Bayannaoer didn’t present strong reflection to the drought.Additionally,it has been also revealed in the outcomes of pre-estimated yield that most of the regions would have a declining yield with increase intervals of the temperature at 0.2℃,0.5℃ and 1.0℃ while the precipitation keeps at the climatological mean level.The more temperature rising,the more yield would decrease.Furthermore,the yield would increase with more rainfall while the temperature going up by 0.2℃ above the climatological mean temperature.Only with more than 20 percent increase amount of precipitation would the yield increase possibly when the rising temperature interval reaches to 0.5℃.With the temperature interval goes up to 1.0℃,most regions perform a decrease yield even with 30 percent increase of precipitation,just few of the regions show a little increase yield.更多还原