【作者】 张葵； 李愉；

【Author】 Zhang Kui Li Yu (Chengdu Meteorological Bureau,Chengdu 610071)

【机构】 成都市气象局；

【摘要】 本工作依据天体信息的地球转速变化,分析研究了大气环流的变化与地球转速的关系,其中地球转速的变化又涉及地球极移和章动的影响。在此基础上,应用了对流层上层温度降低的事实(超低温)与极端天气的关系,尝试了长期天气变化的趋向而涉及了主要灾害天气发生发展的可能性,经多年实践检验,基本上体现了主要天气现象发生发展的动向,特别是异常低温、暴雨、汛期降水量的主要变化趋向。为此,我局近年来的天气分析预测中逐步将此方法投入了业务试运行,目前看来已经显示了业务的可应用性。为此,本文在上述工作基础上进行了初步的小结。更多还原

【Abstract】 This work was based on the information of the earth rotation change of objects,analysis the relationship between the atmospheric circulation changes and the Earth rotational,which also involves changes in the Earth wobble and nutation effects.On this basis,application the relationship between the super-low temperature and the extreme weather,try a long-term trend of climate change involving the possibility of the development of the major disaster weather,after years of practice tests,basically reflects the main trend of the development of the major weather phenomena,in particular,the extreme cold,heavy rain,changes in flood season precipitation trends.To this end,the meteorological bureau analysis and forecasting in recent years,this method step by step into a business test run,now appear to have demonstrated the applicability of the business.In this paper,based on the work of a preliminary summary.更多还原