【作者】 张梅； 文静华；

【Author】 Mei Zhang~1 Jinghua Wen~2 1 School of Mathematics and Statistics,Guizhou Financial Institute,Guiyang,550004 2 School of Information,Guizhou Financial Institute,Guiyang,550004

【机构】 贵州财经学院数学与统计学院； 贵州财经学院信息学院；

【摘要】 利用时间序列分析原理与方法,对北京市公布的疫情数据进行研究,构建了反映SARS传播过程的非线性回归模型。获得了累计确诊病例、累计死亡病例的变化趋势曲线,分别做出了累计确诊病例和累计死亡病例的预测值和实际值对照图。对控制时间T提前和延后2、5天计算,定量评估了应急反映时间对北京市SARS疫情的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The nonlinear regression model was built to reflect transmission process of SARS by using the principle and method of time-series analysis with the epidemic situation data promulgated of Beijing city.So it was obtained that the change trend curve of accumulated diagnosed case and accumulated death case,then the comparison figure was respectively drawn between predictive valued and actual value of accumulated diagnosed case and accumulated death case.The effect of SARS epidemic situation in Beijing city from lash-up reflection time was evaluated quantitatively by computing the case in the instance of ahead and behind 2 and 5 days of control time T.更多还原