【作者】 邢冀； 钱新明； 刘牧； 刘振翼；

【Author】 Xing Ji,Qian Xinming,Liu Mu and Liu Zhenyi (State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081)

【机构】 北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室；

【摘要】 针对油气事故后应急资源需求预测困难的问题,在对油气事故特性及应急资源需求类型分析的基础上,构建了基于案例推理(CBR)的油气事故应急资源需求预测模型,并使用Visual Basic.NET及SQLServer数据库开发了油气事故应急资源需求预测支持决策系统。将该系统应用于实际油气事故案例进行验证,结果表明系统中应急资源需求预测模型科学可靠,系统对油气事故应急资源需求预测结果与其实际用量基本吻合。该系统可为油气事故后快速有效开展应急救援活动提供相应的理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Considering difficulties in forecasting emergency resource demand for oil-gas accident,the property and type of emergency resource was analyzed,and case-based reasoning(CBR) emergency resource demand model in oil-gas accident was set up.A decision support system for forecasting emergency resource demand in oil and gas accident with using Visual Basic.NET and SQL Server database was developed.Take an example for verifying this decision support system,confirming forecasting model of this system reliable.It also shows that the forecasting result from this decision support system meets situation requirement,which could provide theoretical basis for emergency rescue activity after accident.更多还原