【作者】 李林； 时兴合； 申红艳； 戴升； 肖建设；

【Author】 LI Lin1,2 SHI Xinghe1,2 SHEN Hongyan 1,2 DAI Sheng1,2 XIAO Jianshe2 (1 QingHai Climate Centre,QingHai,XiNing,810001; 2. Qinghai key Laboratory of Disaster preventing and Reducing ,Xining,810001)

【机构】 青海省气候中心； 青海省防灾减灾实验室；

【摘要】 利用近50年来青海湖流域水文、气象资料和2010～2020年区域气候模式系统PRECIS输出数据降尺度生成的未来气候情景资料,揭示了1960～2009年青海湖水位波动的气候成因,预测了未来10年青海湖水位可能变化趋势。研究表明:近50年来青海湖水位在波动中呈持续下降趋势,而近5年持续上升为近50年来首次出现,不仅使水位持续下降趋势趋缓,同时使水位变化的短周期趋弱而较长周期趋强;青藏高原季风增强使青海湖流域气候暖湿化,而降水量增加和气温升高则使入湖径流量增加,进而引起了青海湖水位近5年来的持续上升;综合统计方法预测和区域气候模式系统PRECIS预测结果,2010～2020年青海湖水位总体上仍可能以下降为主。更多还原

【Abstract】 The hydrological and meteorological data of Qinghai lake in recent 50 years and future climate scenarios from regional climate model(PRECIS) during 2010-2020 are used. The cause of fluctuation about water level is revealed from 1960 to 2009 and possible trend in the future of 10 years is forecasted. It is found that the level show a continued decline trend in fluctuation during the past 50 years, but continued rising in recent 5 years is the first time. Base on which, decline trend of water level become slow, the short cycle weaken and the long strong; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau monsoon make climate of Qinghai lake basin warm and humid, but the increasing precipitation and rising temperature cause runoff into lake increased. Then lead to water level of Qinghai lake rising continuously in recent 5 years. Combined statistical methods and regional climate model PRECIS prediction, water level of Qinghai lake is likely to drop generally during 2010～2020.更多还原