【作者】 范春； E.J.Love； 翟平阳； 王娟； 那宏坤；

【Author】 Fan Chun, E.J.Love,Zhai Pingyang,Wang Juan,Na Hongkun.Department of Preventive Medicine,Medical College,Xiamen University,Xiamen,361005

【机构】 厦门大学医学院预防医学系； 加拿大卡尔加里大学医学院； 黑龙江省环境保护科学研究院；

【摘要】 目的对S江有机毒物导致居民患肝癌的危险度进行评价。方法根据S江及其自来水有机毒物的定性和定量监测结果,确定苊、芴、菲、蒽、芘代表S江多环芳烃类致癌物,依据病例-对照研究所得到的比值比（OR=1.92）,参照美国EPA推荐的线性多阶段模型（Linear Multi-stage Model,LMS）方法,通过计算致癌强度系数来评价饮用S江水患肝癌的危险度。结果5种致癌物的致癌强度系数平均为1.77×10^-5 mg/kg·day,范围为0.553×10^-5～2.94×10^-5 mg/kg·day;因长期饮用受有机毒物污染的S江水引起年均患肝癌超额病例数为86.47人/10万。结论S江水具有致肝癌危险性,与流行病学和体外实验研究的结论一致。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To estimate the risk of organic pollutants in the S River induced the residents to suffer from liver cancer.Methods On the basis of the results from the qualitative and quantitative analysis on the organic pollutants in the S River and tap water,acenaphthene,fluorine,phenanthrene,anthracene,pyrene were confirmed to stand for the level of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon（PAHs） in the water.According to the Odd Ratio（OR=1.92） in the case-control study,Carcinogenic Potency Index（CPI） were calculated with Linear Muti-stage Model commended by EPA to estimate the risk of drinking water from the S River to lead to liver cancer. Results The average CPI of 5 kinds of carcinogens is 1.77×10^-5mg/kg·day,the CPI range is 0.553×10^-5～2.94×10^-5mg/kg·day.The excess cases of liver cancer caused by drinking water,which polluted by organic contamination,would be 86.47 persons/100 thousand.Conclusion There is risk of carcinogenesis for the water from S River,which is of same view with the conclusion of epidemiological study and experiment in vitro.更多还原