【作者】 谢五三； 田红； 温华洋；

【Author】 XIE Wu-san,TIAN Hong,WEN Hua-yang (Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031,China)

【机构】 安徽省气候中心；

【摘要】 本文从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、抗灾能力等四个方面,运用安徽省气象资料、社会经济统计资料、地理信息资料等等,采用专家打分法及加权综合法建立了暴雨洪涝灾害各评价因子和综合风险评估模型,在GIS平台上,对安徽省暴雨洪涝灾害风险进行评估和区划,结果表明:沿江地区和淮北西部阜阳、临泉一带为高风险区,而江南东南部和大别山区为低风险区,再用历史洪涝灾情资料、典型大涝年洪水淹没区以及相关历史文献记录进行对比验证,风险区划结果和实际灾情基本符合。更多还原

【Abstract】 Basing on the meteorological data, society-economy data, geography- information data etc, from the aspects of the disastrous factors, the hazard inducing environment, the hazard-bearing body and the capacity to prevent disaster, this paper sets up the model of the disastrous regionalization of rainstorm flood and the models of each factor by utilizing the expert-marking method and weighted-comprehensive method; then this paper evaluates and regionalizes risks of rainstorm flood in Anhui province on the platform of GIS. Then the following conclusions can be arrived at: areas alongside the Changjiang River and areas of Fuyang, Linquan etc in the west part of Huaibei are at higher risks; on the contrast, the southeast of Jiangnan and DaBie Mountain are at lower risks, Meanwhile, the results of regionalizing the risks are in accordance with the data of rainstorm flood in history , the information of the area flooded in the typical year, as well as the historical literature related to flood.更多还原