【作者】 徐卫民； 孔新红； 桂保玉；

【Author】 Xu Wei-min,Kong Xin-hong,Gui bao-yu (Meteorological Science Institute of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330046,china)

【机构】 江西省气象科学研究所；

【摘要】 介绍计算威尔分布参数的累积分布函数拟合法、平均风速和标准差估计法和平均风速和最大风速估计等三种算法,并应用此算法计算了都阳气象站的风速威布尔分布参数。根据分布参数拟合了都阳县气象站的三种风速概率分布,将拟合的风速概率分布与同期的风速实际频率分布结果进行相关分析,依据相关系数判断拟合效果的好坏。通过比较得到了以下结论:平均风速和标准差估计法效果最好,累积分布函数拟合法次之,由于最大风速变化比较随机,平均风速和最大风速估计法效果波动最大,整体效果差。通过多年最大风速的平均数与平均风速计算,能减少最大风速抽样的随机性误差,结果更具代表性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to analyze the fitness of methods to obtain Weibull distribution parameters,three methods to calculate Weibull distribution parameters of wind speed is compared in this paper .Firstly this paper introduce three common methods :cumulative distribution function,average wind speed and standard deviation and average wind speed and maximum wind speed .Then the Weibull parameters of Poyang station are calculated separately by three methods above .In order to check up the effect of three different methods,the probability distribution of wind speed of Poyang station is calculated using the obtaitined parameters and compared with the measured data .If the relationship is more significant,the effect is more perfect .The conclusion is:the method of average wind speed and standard deviation is the best and the method of cumulative distribution function is the better,the method of average wind speed and maximum wind speed has a large fluctuation because the maximum wind speed changed more randomly .But the random mistake of maximum wind speed can be reduced,the effect has better representative using the average of many years maximum wind speed and the average wind speed of many years.更多还原