【作者】 黄玉霞； 王宝鉴； 张强； 王劲松； 杨选雄；

【Author】 Huang Yu-xia1,3 , Wang Bao-jian1,2, Zhang qiang1,Wang Jin-song1,Yang xuanxiong4 (1. Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratories of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2.Lanzhou Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China;3.Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou 730020, China; 4.Gansu Provincial Meteorology Bureau, Lanzhou 730020,China)

【机构】 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室； 兰州中心气象台； 兰州区域气候中心； 甘肃省气象局；

【摘要】 石羊河流域的年平均气温(最高、最低气温)自1951年以来呈持续上升趋势,增温速率为0.22℃/10a,增幅达1.2℃。1992年是年平均气温显著变暖的年份,与显著变暖前相比,年平均气温上升了0.85℃,低于近51年1.1℃的增幅水平。在近55年中,石羊河流域的年降水总体上在增加,出山口径流在减少,流域尾闾民勤绿洲的地下水位在快速下降。气温显著变暖后,年降水增加了18.2mm,增幅达5.8%,出山口径流减少了4.1亿m3,民勤绿洲的地下水位下降了1-2倍。水资源变化的成因分析表明,出山口径流的减少源自径流补充之一的上游山区降水的减少,而红崖山水库入库径流的持续快速减少则是民勤地下水位快速下降的主要原因之一。受气候变化的影响,石羊河流域出山口径流峰期有所提前,而人类活动严重地影响了石羊河流域中游地表径流利用量和下游可利用量分配比例。更多还原

【Abstract】 In Shiyang river basin, the annual average temperature (maximum and minimum temperature) is sustaining upward trend since 1951, warming rate of 0.22℃/10 a, an increase of 1.2℃.The average temperature is significant warming in 1992.Compared with significant warming ago, the annual average temperature rose by 0.85℃, lower than the 1.1 ℃ increase nearly 51years. The annual precipitation is increasing trend, runoff from mountain pass is decreasing trend, the groundwater depth of Minqin oasis is downward trend in nearly 20 years. Compared with the notable warming ago, the annual rainfull increased by 18.2 mm, an increase of 5.8%, the runoff from mountain reduce the 410 million m3, the depth of the water table has dropped about 1-2 times in Minqin oasis. The cause of water resources changes show, that mountain precipitation in the upper reaches of the reduction is one of the reasons for the reduction of runoff from mountain pass, Hongyashan reservoir inflow to the sustained and rapid reduction eventually led to the rapid decline in the groundwater level. Subject to the impact of climate change, the peak of runoff from mountain ahead of schedule ,human activities is the main reasons for the change of runoff consumption in midstream and utilization of available volume in downstream.更多还原