【作者】 刘学锋； 任国玉； 范增禄； 张成伟； 杨贤；

【Author】 LIU Xue-feng1 2 REN Guo-yu2 Li1 FAN Zeng-lu1 ZHANG Cheng-wei1 YANG Xian1 1 Hebei Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050021 2 Laboratory for Climate Studies,CMA, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

【机构】 河北省气候中心； 中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,国家气候中心；

【摘要】 利用海河流域104个气象站的逐日降水资料,应用M-K趋势检验方法分析研究了海河流域极端强降水量、频数和强度时空变化趋势。结果表明:海河流域极端强降水量出现了减少趋势,1996年以来减少趋势更为显著,同时出现大范围极端强降水事件的情形更为少见;海河流域极端强降水强度和频数也呈明显减少趋势,因此,极端强降水量下降是极端强降水强度和频数减少共同作用的结果;海河流域极端强降水的显著变化主要发生在环渤海湾的沿海区域和海河北系部分地区;在近47年,极端强降水事件年内分布有一定变化,8、9月趋于减少,而5、6月趋于增加。本文结果说明,在全球气候变暖的背景下,海河流域极端强降水事件与年总降水量一样趋于减少。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recent trends of amount,intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation for the Haihe River basin are analyzed on the basis of daily mean precipitation observations from 104 weather stations during 1961-2007. Results indicate that extreme precipitation amount has significantly decreased. The most significant decreas occurred after mid-1990s. Both frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events have contributed to the decreasing of the extreme precipitation amount,but the decrease of frequency has contributed more to the negative trend of precipitation amount. Significant decrease in extreme precipitation events occurred around the Bohai Bay region and part of northern Haihe Rinver basin. The average intervals between two extreme precipitation events have been extended. It is also interesting to note that the intra-annual distribution of extreme precipitation events in the Haihe River basin has changed. Frequency of extreme precipitation has increased in May and June,but has decreased in July and August since mid-1990s.The possibility for extreme precipitation events to simultaneously occur across the basin has significant decreased.The variation of extreme precipitation events might have impacted the regional water cycle and water resources.更多还原