【作者】 贾超； 李亚非； 陈进；

【Author】 JIA Chao~1 LI Ya-fei~1 CHEN Jin~2 (1.School of Civil Engineering of Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China; (2.Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China)

【机构】 山东大学土建与水利学院； 长江科学院；

【摘要】 在新的世纪中,我国将迎来水电开发建设新的重要发展时期,一批高坝正要或将要开工建设。这些高坝若发生破坏,除工程破坏本身引起的经济损失外,其次生灾害带来的后果极其严重。推进高坝风险的定量分析是坝工建设本身迫切需要解决的问题。因此,在高坝建设中引入风险理论,结合工程可靠性分析进行高坝可靠度风险分析具有重要的工程和社会实践意义。其基本研究思路应以重大水电工程实践为背景,以可靠度理论、随机力学、风险分析理论为基础,进行大坝风险分析的交叉科学研究,需采用现场实测资料,社会调查,力学数值模拟相结合的技术路线。其主要步骤应以风险分析的四级结构展开,包括大坝系统组成形式研究、主要风险因子对大坝系统安全影响的研究、关键单元可靠度研究、大坝体系可靠度研究、大坝系统风险分析研究、安全保障关键技术研究等。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the new century,China will ahead an important phase for hydropower development.Many high dams are about to be constructed or is being constructed.If these dams damaged,in addition to the direct economic losses caused by the project itself,indirect damage will cause more serious consequence. Propelling risk quantitative analysis of high dam is an imperative problem to be solved for dam engineering.Therefore,considering risk theory in high dam construction,and integrating engineering reliability in risk analysis based on the reliability for high dams have important sense in both engineering and social practice.The main methods are take graveness practice of hydropower as background,and take reliability theory,stochastic mechanics,and risk analysis theory as foundation.High dam risk analysis is a complex science,should combine in-situ survey data,social investigation and numerical simulation is the technical strategy.The primary contens should be carried out based on four steps in system risk analysis include dam system components analysis,study of the effects of main risk factors on dam system safety,the key elements research,dam system reliability research,dam system risk research,safeguards analysis for dam safety,etc.更多还原