【作者】 普宗朝； 张山清； 李景林； 刘海荣； 李静；

【Author】 Pu Zongchao1,Zhang Shanqing1,Li Jinglin1,Liu Hairong2,Li Jing3 (1. Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002,China;2. Aksu regional meteorological bureau of Xinjiang, Aksu 843000,China;Hotan region Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Hotan 848000, China)

【机构】 新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局； 新疆阿克苏地区气象局； 新疆和田地区气象局；

【摘要】 根据新疆塔克拉玛干沙漠周边12个气象台站1961-2007年的历史气候资料,采用线性回归、Modet小波、Mann-Kendall突变检测和自然正交分解(EOF)等方法,对近47年的年平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸散量和下垫面干燥度等气候要素的基本变化特征进行了分析,结果表明:①近47年塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区年平均气温呈升高趋势,降水量呈增多趋势,年潜在蒸散量和下垫面干燥度呈减小趋势。受其综合影响,近47年塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区气候呈较明显的暖湿化趋势。②突变检测表明,塔克拉玛干沙漠周边地区年平均气温在1970年发生了突变性的升高,降水量在1981年发生了突变性的增多,而潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度在1981年发生了突变性的减小。③气温、降水、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度均分别存在准3a、8a的年际尺度和16～22a的年代际尺度的周期性变化;④12站的年平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度等四要素的最主要空间分布特征均是同向变化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the climatological data observed by 12 meteorological stations on the area around Taklimakan desert during 1961-2007,the fundamental change characteristic of key climate elements such as temperatures , amount of precipitation , Potential evapotranspiration and aridity index were analyzed by using linear regression,wavelet analysis ,abrupt and EOF .The main results obtained are as follows: (1)The annual mean temperature, precipitation are in an increasing trend ,but the annual Potential evapotranspiration and aridity index are in an decreasing trend,Its influence, the climate is assumedthe obvious warm and wet change tendency on the area around Taklimakan desert in resent 47 years ; (2)The abrupt examination indicated that, the annual mean temperature has had the discontinuity ascension in 1970, precipitation have had discontinuity enlargement in 1981, but the annual Potential evapotranspiration and aridity index has had discontinuity reducing in 1981 on the area around Taklimakan desert in resent 47 years.(3) Temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and aridity index of all there were quasi-3 a, 8a of the inter-scale and 16～ 22 a time when the scale of the cyclical changes;(4) The most main spatial distribution characteristics are the cocurrent changes about the temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and aridity index in the area around Taklimakan desert in resent 47 years.更多还原