【作者】 邹用昌； 杨修群； 潘志祥； 孙旭光； 房佳蓓； 廖玉芳；

【Author】 Yong-Chang Zou1,Xiu-Qun Yang2, Zhi-xiang Pan1 Xu-Guang Sun2, Jia-Bei Fang2,Yu-fang Liao1 1 Hunan Meteorological bureau, Changsha 410007 2 Institute of Severe Weather and Climate, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093

【机构】 湖南省气象局； 南京大学灾害性天气气候研究所；

【摘要】 本文利用提交给IPCC AR4的GFDL-CM2.1耦合模式控制试验和CO2浓度以每年1%增长试验的逐日降水输出结果,就CO2浓度加倍对我国东部地区极端降水变化影响进行了评估。结果表明:CO2浓度加倍导致我国东部地区极端降水强度增强,年极端降水量显著增多,除华北地区南部外东部其它地区年极端降水频次显著增加;CO2浓度加倍对我国各季极端降水都有影响,其中对春夏季影响较大,导致我国东部绝大多数地区春季和夏季极端降水频次增加,极端降水量增多,极端降水强度增强;CO2浓度加倍导致我国年极端降水量显著增多,并不意味CO2浓度加倍导致我国年降水也显著增多,我国华北地区南部和长江中下游地区年降水是减少的,减少的主要原因是上述地区春夏季雨日减少以及小雨和中雨强度减小所致。上述研究结果说明我国极端降水的变化与人类活动有一定的关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 The output of referring to IPCC AR4 of GFDL-CM2.1 Coupled model of control experiment and increasing experiment of transient 1%/yr sensitivity at CO2 doubling is used in this study, this paper studied on the effecting evaluation of CO2 doubling to the variation of extreme precipitation in the east part of China. The result shows that: In the east part of China, CO2 doubling causes a prominent increase of annual extreme precipitation and annual extreme precipitation intensity, annual extreme precipitation frequency also increases obviously except the south part of North China. CO2 doubling has influence on the distribution of extreme precipitation in all the seasons, especially in spring and summer when it leads to an increase of extreme precipitation, extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation frequency in the most parts of eastern China. However, the marked increase of annual extreme precipitation in China induced by CO2 doubling does not mean an increase of annual precipitation in China. Actually, the annual precipitation in the south part of North China and that in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River are both decreasing, and this is mainly because of the decrease of the number of wet days in spring and summer as well as the decreases of the occurrence frequencies of light rain and moderate rain. The result shows that there is a certain relationship between the variation of extreme precipitation and the human activities.更多还原