【作者】 王学萌； 郝永红；

【Author】 Xuemeng Wang~1 Yonghong Hao~2 1)Institute for Integrated Survey of Agriculture Resource Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030006 ~2)Key Laboratory of Water Environment and Water Resources,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387

【机构】 山西省农业科学院综合考察所； 天津师范大学水环境与水资源重点实验室；

【摘要】 在文献[1]中,作者运用等维灰数递补动态预测模型,对1999—2050年中国总人口数进行了逐年预测。时过8年,本文将文献[1]中1999—2006年中国人口的预测结果与这8年中国实际人口数进行验证与分析,用以评价预测模型的有效性和可行性。检验结果表明:预测精度较高。最后,依据最新人口数据,用该模型对我国总人口进行了新的预测,为实现我国可持续发展提供新的科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In reference [1],China’s populations from 1999 to 2050 were predicted with the methods of dynamic forecasting with recursive compensation by grey numbers of identical dimensions.8 years passed,the prediction populations from 1999 to 2006 are compared with the practical population of same periods to assess the prediction model.The results show that its accurate is well.Finally Chin’s populations from 2007 to 2050 are predicted again according to the new populations of recent years. And they can use as n fundamental materials for China sustainable development.更多还原