基于容量承载力的人口发展预测与政策建议——浙江桐庐县案例

【作者】 王波； 吕谨益；

【机构】 杭州市城市规划设计研究院； 桐庐县建设局城乡规划管理处；

【摘要】 人口规模的预测要适应规划编制思路的转变。本文提出了基于容量承载力的人口规模预测方法,以浙江桐庐县案例,从“就业空间”承载力和“环境容量”承载力两个方面进行了人口规模容量预测。通过产业发展综合分析法进行“就业空间”承载力的人口容量预测;通过生态足迹环境容量分析法、土地生态功能区容量分析法和逾渗透理论法进行“环境容量”承载力的人口容量预测。并提出推进人口合理增长和经济社会协调发展的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 population scale’s forecast should be fit with the changeover of the idea of planning formulation. This paper brings out a forecast method about the population scale, which is based on the bearing capacity. It takes TongLu county as an example, making population scale’s capacity forecast from two sides that is ’employment space’ and ’environmental capacity" . It makes populatin capacity forecast about the bearing capacity of ’employment space’ by the way of the unified industry’ s analysis, and brings out the population capacity forecast about the bearing capacity of ’environmental capacity’ by the way of ecology trail analysisNcapacity analysis of the land’s ecology function and infiltration theory. It suggests the countermeasure about the proper increasing of the population and the harmony development of the social economy.更多还原