【作者】 耿代； 米红； 刘力丰；

【Author】 GENG Dai, MI Hong, LIU U-feng (Population Resource Environment and CIS Researching Center, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China)

【机构】 厦门大学人口资源环境与地理信息系统研究中心；

【摘要】 和谐社会的建立是一个复杂的系统工程,其中社会经济与人口之间的相互作用是构建和谐社会的一个重要的子系统．采用我国1985年-2004年的统计数据,开展了社会经济、人口和谐发展的实证研究,运用协整理论,建立了社会经济、人口和谐发展的长期均衡方程及误差修正(ECM)模型．从定量角度探求了短期内各因素的变化趋势．结果表明,该模型较好了反映社会经济、人口之间的相互关系,体现了两者之间复杂的系统特性,是一个能够兼顾长期均衡关系的短期动态模型．更多还原

【Abstract】 It is a complex system engineering to construct Harmonious Society, and society, economy and population system is a quite significant part of Harmonious Society. This paper does a application researching on development og society, economy and population with historical data between 198S ~ 2004. On the basis of Cointegration Theory, we work out one long term balanced equation and one error correct model (ECM) about the developing society, economy and population system. Through the established model, we find out short term developing trend among factors. From the point of view of quantity-analysis, the prediction model could reflect the mathematical relationship among society, economy and population subsystems. It is a short term dynamic model, which embodies complicated system features and long term cointegration relationship.更多还原