【作者】 李宏瑾；

【机构】 中国人民银行营业管理部；

【摘要】 虽然具有行业的许多特性,但是房地产市场仍然服从供求规律的支配。本文借鉴货币交易方程,形成了一个分析房价和供求关系变化的理论分析框架,并运用 2001 年以来的数据进行了实证分析,在此基础上通过梳理三年来房地产宏观调控的各项政策措施后指出,各项政策基本上都是从控制供给的角度进行的而对需求的抑制效果非常有限,这样不仅没有实现房价平稳的政策初衷,反而加剧了市场的供求矛盾,致使房价迅速上涨。最后,提出了一些促进我国房地产市场健康发展的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Though with many special industrial characteristics, the housing market still fellows the force of demand and supply. Based on the monetary quantity Fisher Equation, we use a theoretical framework analyzing the relationships between the changes of housing price with market demand and supply, and do an empirical test with the data since 2001. Then, we take re-thoughts on the macro-adjustments and point out that most policies just makes the market more volatile so that housing price grows rapidly. Last, we put forward the suggestions for the healthy developments of housing market.更多还原