【作者】 丁永红； 王文； 郑广芬； 邵健； 纪晓玲；

【Author】 Ding Yong-hong1,2,Wang Wen1,Zheng Guang-fen2,Shao Jian2,Ji Xiao-ling2 (1 College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China, 730000,2 Ningxia Meteorological observatory, Yinchuan, China, 750002)

【机构】 兰州大学大气科学学院； 宁夏气象台；

【摘要】 选取宁夏24个气象站的气象观测资料,运用合成、Lepage检验和Mexihat小波方法,分析了宁夏暴雨发生次数的气候特征和年际、年代际变化规律及其突变和周期。结果表明:自20世纪90年代以后,随着全球气候变暖进一步加剧,宁夏虽然出现了暴雨历史极端气候事件,但宁夏暴雨发生次数的气候特征并没有发生明显变化。在月际分布上多出现于7-8月份,在旬际分布上具有“七下八上”的特点,空间分布上自东南向西北减少,年均暴雨发生次数在1.0d以下,且多分布于山脉的迎风坡地区;存在明显的年际和年代际变化规律,总体呈不明显下降趋势;除了7月份在1972年和1994年有两个可以认为有并不十分显著的突变发生的年份外,没有其他发生突变的年份;在7月、8月和汛期存在不同时间尺度上周期或准周期的变化特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 By selecting the meteorological observed data of 24 stations in Ningxia and using the methods of resultant, Lepage test and Mexihat wavelet, an analysis of the climate characteristics, the rule of interannual and decade change, the abrupt and periods of heavy-rain times in Ningxia was conducted. The analysis shows that: with the more serious globe warming after the 1990s, although there was extreme climate event of heavy-rain, the statistics climate characteristics of heavy-rain in Ningxia were not changed obviously. Ningxia heavy-rain occur usually in Jul. and Aug. in monthly distribution, it has the characteristic of “later Jul. to early Aug.” in ten-days distribution, and it reduce from south-east to north-west in spatial distribution, its annual mean times below 1.0d,and it usually distribute in aweather slopes of mountains; It has the rules of interannual and decade changes,and has unconspicuous descend trend in the whole; Except two years that could be considered abrupt not very significant in Jul. in 1972 and 1994, there were no other abrupt years; It also has periods and quasi-periods change characteristics in Jul., Aug. and flood season in different time scales.更多还原