【作者】 郑广芬； 陈晓光； 赵光平； 孙银川； 纳丽；

【Author】 ZHENG Guang-fen1,2 CHEN Xiao-guang1 ZHAO Guang-ping1,2 NA Li2 SUN Yin-chuan2 (1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Preventing and Reducing in Ningxia, Yinchuan China 2.750002;Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yinchuan China 750002)

【机构】 宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室； 宁夏气象台；

【摘要】 本文对近40多年来宁夏冬季气温的变化进行了研究,结果表明:宁夏冬季气温总趋势是变暖的,冬季平均气温在1985年前后发生突变,突变后升温最明显的是中部干旱带;宁夏冬季气候变暖与大区域有不同之处,1967～1990年宁夏冬季升温过程,最低气温是主要的,但1990年以后宁夏冬季的变暖,并不完全是由于最低气温的变暖而形成,最高气温的变暖也是90年代以来宁夏冬季气候变暖的重要特征;宁夏极端气温变化具有明显阶段性特征,80年代末期以后极端最低气温的变率明显增大;冬季北半球500hpa极涡面积、亚洲西风环流指数、东亚大槽位置、西太平洋副热带高压强度与宁夏冬季平均气温有较为一致的年代际气候特征;小波分析发现,以上环流特征量与宁夏冬季平均气温存在相同的4年左右的主周期变化,且在时、频域上有较为一致的对应关系。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,using statistical methods such as Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis,we analysed the change of temperature of Ningxia in winter in more than 40 years in the past. The result shows: the total trend of temperature became warm in winter in Ningxia from 1961 to 2003. The increments of mean temperature and mean maximum temperature and the mean minimum temperature and maximum temperature and the minimum temperature were about 2.0℃, 1.6℃,2.3℃,1.4℃,1.6℃ respectively from 1960s to 1990s. Jump of the temperature in winter took place in 1985. The mean temperature had raised 1.7 ℃, mean maximum temperature 1.5℃, mean minimum temperature 2.0℃ after jump.The differences with else areas are that the warming of minimum temperature is remarkable from 1967 to 1990.But after 1990, the increment of maximum temperature is greater than minimum temperature. Warming trend is contributed not only to the minimum temperature,but also to the maximum temperature variation since the 1990s. The extreme temperature of Ningxia change in winter has obvious phased characteristics ,and the linear trend of the maximum temperature was obviously greater than that of the minimum temperature before 1978 and after 1982.The becoming rate of the minimum temperature obviously increased after latter stage of the eighties. Corresponding with the change of temperature of winter, atmospheric circulation characteristics of 500hpa took place decade climate change. There was a jump in the middle of 1980s.Before the middle of 1980s, north hemisphere vortex area was bigger, west wind circulation index was weaker, the position of east Asian trough was wester, the intensity of subtropical high press in West Pacific Ocean was weaker than nomal years.After the middle of 1980s, north hemisphere vortex area was smaller, west wind circulation indx was stronger, the position of east Asian trough was easter, the intensity of subtropical high press in West Pacific Ocean was stronger than nomal years.Using wavwlet analysis,we found that the temperature of Ningxia in winter and the atmospheric circulation characteristics of 500hpa have consistent change in time and frequency,and they have same main period of 4 years.更多还原