【作者】 刘瑜； 马振峰； 陶云； 龙春华；

【Author】 Liu Yu1,2 Mazhenfeng1 Tao Yun2 Longchunhua3 (1 Laboratory of Plateau Meteorogy,CMA,Chengdu,610071 ) (2 Meteorological Observatory of Yunnan Province, Kunming, 650034) (3 Meteorological Observatory of Wenshan Prefecture, Wenshan, 663000)

【机构】 中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室； 云南省气象台； 云南省文山州气象台；

【摘要】 1999～2002年云南处于雨季偏早、5月雨量偏多的气候背景下,2002年雨季连续第4年偏早,这种气候异常较罕见。利用雨季开始期资料,分析了云南雨季开始期变化的年代际特征。还对应分析了雨季开始偏早年及偏晚年1月及5月100hPa、500hPa及SLP场距平合成场,并与2002年进行了比较,得到了一些对预测云南雨季开始期有指导性的结论。2002年云南雨季偏早开始与索马里急流建立,高层中低纬环流出现“突变”有直接原因。更多还原

【Abstract】 From 1999 to 2002,the Yunnan’s rainy season onset time was above-early, and May’s precipitations were also above-normal. It was very exceptionally anomalous climate that the continuous forth year Yunnan’s rainy season onset time was above-early in 2002. We used the data of the Yunnan’s rainy season onset time to analyze its interdecadal change characteristics. In addition, the January and May 100hPa, 500hPa and SLP anomalous field were analyzed in above-early years and below-later years. Comparing with the circulations in 2002, some directive results of predicting the Yunnan’s rainy season onset time were obtained. There were directive relations between the Yunnan’s rainy season above-early onset time in 2002 and building of Somali jet, the abrupt change of the upper-level midlatitude and low-latitude circulations.更多还原