【作者】 唐天国； 陈春华； 刘浩吾； 丁睿；

【Author】 Tang Tianguo;Chen Chunhua;Liu Haowu;Dingrui School of Hydraulic Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065 China The Jidong Company of Pan-cheng Gang Project in the 19th Ye,Panzhihua 617023 China

【机构】 四川大学水电学院； 中国十九冶攀-成钢项目部机动工程处；

【摘要】 一般灰色模型进行预测存在较大的局限性和系统误差,对一般灰色模型进行了误差来源追踪分析后,提出了改进方法,得到改进后的灰色预测模型并将其用于高边坡稳定性监测,依据某水电站高边坡连续七年的监测数据(第六年的数据予以剔除),建立了该水电站高边坡灰色稳定性模型。把改进后的灰色模型与一般的灰色模型、统计模型等预测模型进行了对比,同时还进行了相对误差、相关系数以及最大误差分析对比。研究表明,改进后灰色模型精度较高,预测结果与实际吻合较好。更多还原

【Abstract】 The general grey model is of high limitation and systematic errors in prediction. Its error sources havebeen tracked and its improved method has been put forward. Using the monitoring data in successive sevenyears(the sixth years’ data is omitted), grey prediction model of high rock slope of a hydroelectric power station isestablished by using the improved grey stability model. The general grey model and the statistical model on highrock slope of the hydroelectric power station are also set up. The comparison among the prediction results of theimproved grey model, the general grey model and the statistical model with mean errors, relational coefficient andmaximum errors have been completed. The results have showed that the modified grey model is of high accuracyin safety monitoring and its prediction stability behavior coincides with the actual behavior of the high rock slope.更多还原