【作者】 矫梅燕； 钱传海； 毕宝贵；

【Author】 Jiao Meiyan, Qian Chuanhai, Bi Baogui(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081)

【机构】 国家气象中心；

【摘要】 <正> 1天气预报业务面临的形势1.1 极端天气事件的影响越来越大人类进入21世纪,随着科技和经济的快速发展,气象灾害造成的损失越来越大,气候变化及所伴随的极端天气气候事件成为社会和公众关注的热点。今年以来,全国各地频繁出现的局地灾害性天气,像陕西南部秦岭山区的佛坪县突降罕见暴雨,连续降水量超过400 mm,造成人员及经济的巨大损失,引起上至中央、国务院领导,下到普通公众的极大关注;今年8月,欧洲中部和南部先后遭受暴雨袭击,造成该地区的国家出现数十年甚至上百年来不遇的特大洪水,至更多还原

【Abstract】 With the progress of remote sensing, numeric weather prediction and computer technologies, weather forecast also gets much improvement during recent years. However, kinds of meteorological disasters still bring about serious loss of lives and economy each year. The demands and requirements from the government and public are becoming increasingly higher and more detailed. How can we get further progress in weather forecast and how to extend weather service fields? These are the main problems and challenges we are facing today. Taking NWP as the main basis and making use of all - round meteorological information and various prediction methods, these will be the principal direction for modern weather forecast. NWP has become the most important basis for operational works. Meanwhile, NWP interpretation and application get developed and put into operation. Satellites and radars have been playing important roles in disasters monitoring and forecasting in the past years, but how to take the advantage of these kinds of high resolution data, temporal and spatial, still remains hard works for us. Also, we have to make efforts to improve our knowledge on tropical cyclones and heavy rains, to make more accurate forecasts, and make contribution to disaster prevention and reduction.更多还原